The Earnings Put
The market no longer counts on the Fed to protect asset prices. It counts on earnings.
A close look at the bond market, rising global yields and why technology earnings remained the market’s central support.
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Lobato Advisory Group
Monthly Macro Letters
Markets in context. Monthly research on rates, earnings, technology, liquidity and the forces reshaping the global economy.
The Tug of War
Earnings growth is pulling one way. The cost of money is pulling the other.
September traces a market caught between resilient growth and a sharp rise in long-term yields. The letter examines the changing buyers of government debt, the pressure on the yen carry trade and the continuing scale of the AI investment cycle.
Archive
June—August 2026
Dislocation, Not a Verdict
A violent Nasdaq unwind met stronger evidence from the AI and memory economy.
Market turbulence, concentrated forced selling and the observable earnings and spending signals that separate dislocation from deterioration.
Open July PDF
A Rare Market Path
Unusual overnight gaps met a durable AI infrastructure cycle.
A statistical review of June’s market path, the economics of AI infrastructure and the geopolitical channels connecting oil, inflation and yields.
Open June PDF