The Weekend Spread
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Brazil Runoff, Live by State

Presidential runoff, Sunday October 25, 2026. Official TSE count, refreshed every minute.

Lula (PT)
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Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)
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Loading the official count…

Projected final result

Lula
51.8%
Flávio Bolsonaro
48.2%
Chance of victory
Lula >99.9%Flávio <0.1%
Uncertainty band: ±0.0 points · Projection as of 21:29, Brasilia
Projection: ElectionCast, an independent model built from TSE section data, benchmarked against the first round. Not an official result.
AC AL AM AP BA CE DF ES GO MA MG MS MT PA PB PE PI PR RJ RN RO RR RS SC SE SP TO AC AL AM AP BA CE DF ES GO MA MG MS MT PA PB PE PI PR RJ RN RO RR RS SC SE SP TO
Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro leads Not yet counting

News updates

12:58 AM ETAgencia Brasil reports Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered Flavio Bolsonaro to surrender his passports within 24 hours, barred him from leaving Brazil and barred contact with lawyer Willer Tomaz. The confidential order is part of a Federal Police investigation of both men on suspicion of money laundering and illegal foreign exchange transactions; the final TSE count remains Lula 51.79% to 48.21% with 100% counted.
11:15 PM ETFlavio Bolsonaro's Liberal Party acknowledged the runoff result on Monday in a statement signed by party head Valdemar Costa Neto, Reuters reports. The party said it recognizes the presidential result proclaimed by the TSE, which gave Lula 51.79% to 48.21% with 100% counted, but said the questions raised need to be properly clarified.
7:28 PM ETFlavio Bolsonaro shifted his legal challenge on Monday, saying he will seek removal of Lula's ticket for alleged abuse of political and economic power rather than annulment of the vote, Reuters reports. CNN Brasil, cited by Brazilian outlets, said campaign sources confirmed he has dropped the annulment request he announced Sunday night; the final TSE count remains Lula 51.79% to 48.21% with 100% counted.
6:15 PM ETPresident Donald Trump told reporters on Monday, without citing evidence, that Lula's win looked like another rigged election and called the two hour voting extension very strange, Reuters reports. Flavio Bolsonaro has refused to concede and says he will seek annulment of the runoff, which Lula won 51.79% to 48.21% with 100% counted.
5:42 PM ETFlavio Bolsonaro said Monday that federal police asked him to turn in his passports and barred him from leaving Brazil after he visited his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, Reuters reports. He said he will comply and denied planning to flee, and attributed the order to a ruling by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, which the court and police did not immediately confirm.
11:15 PM ETCount complete: TSE file (11:26 PM Brasilia) shows 100.00% of sections totalized, Lula 51.79% (64,256,232 votes), Flavio Bolsonaro 48.21% (59,826,041). All big states are at 100.00%: Sao Paulo Bolsonaro 53.85% to 46.15%, Minas Gerais Lula 50.43% to 49.57%, Rio de Janeiro Bolsonaro 53.10% to 46.90%, Bahia Lula 71.31% to 28.69%. Reuters and AP have already called the race for Lula.
10:15 PM ETFlavio Bolsonaro says he will not concede and will seek annulment of the runoff, calling Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin's two hour voting extension unacceptable, Reuters reports. The count is essentially complete and Reuters has already called the race for Lula.
9:58 PM ETCount essentially complete: TSE file (10:45 PM Brasilia) shows 99.99% of sections totalized, Lula 51.79% (64,255,891 votes), Flavio Bolsonaro 48.21% (59,825,984). Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are at 100.00%, Minas Gerais and Bahia at 99.99%. Lula holds Minas Gerais 50.43% to 49.57% and Bahia 71.31% to 28.69%; Bolsonaro holds Sao Paulo 53.85% to 46.15% and Rio de Janeiro 53.10% to 46.90%. Reuters has already called the race for Lula.
8:30 PM ETReuters calls the runoff for Lula: TSE file (9:29 PM Brasilia) shows 99.88% of sections totalized, Lula 51.76% (64,157,344 votes), Flavio Bolsonaro 48.24% (59,782,321). All big states are essentially in: Sao Paulo 99.97% with Bolsonaro ahead 53.85% to 46.15%, Minas Gerais 99.69% with Lula ahead 50.39% to 49.61%, Rio de Janeiro 99.99% with Bolsonaro ahead 53.10% to 46.90%, and Bahia 99.56% with Lula ahead 71.31% to 28.69%.
8:00 PM ETCount passes 75%: TSE file (8:58 PM Brasilia) shows 86.41% of sections totalized, Lula 51.45% (54,957,812 votes), Flavio Bolsonaro 48.55% (51,861,771). Rio de Janeiro is still mostly out at 44.87%, Sao Paulo is 81.57% in with Bolsonaro ahead, Minas Gerais is 86.38% in with Lula narrowly ahead, and Bahia is 79.05% in with Lula well ahead.
7:45 PM ETCount passes 50%: TSE file (8:45 PM Brasilia) shows 71.74% of sections totalized, Lula 50.97% (45,154,463 votes), Flavio Bolsonaro 49.03% (43,433,275). Rio de Janeiro is still mostly out at 22.40%, Sao Paulo is 57.90% in with Bolsonaro ahead, and Minas Gerais is almost tied with Lula narrowly ahead.
7:15 PM ETCount passes one third: TSE file (8:12 PM Brasilia) shows 34.45% of sections totalized, Flavio Bolsonaro 50.32% (21,367,134 votes), Lula 49.68% (21,094,026). The Southeast is still mostly out, with Sao Paulo at 10.50% and Rio de Janeiro at 2.08%, while the North is about two thirds in.
StateTonightCountedFirst round, Oct 4

Source: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), official count, election 6258, second round. First round: TSE final results, October 4, 2026 (share of valid votes). A state colors in once its first sections are totalized; the shade deepens with the leader's margin.
The Weekend Spread